Labour believes it is “fighting a losing battle” against Reform in the “Red Wall” area where Angela Rayner holds her seat and Andy Burnham could stand in a by-election for a route back to Downing Street.
An “urgent” warning sent out to grassroots members in Tameside, Greater Manchester, comes as Labour is forecast to suffer substantial losses at May’s local elections, which could threaten Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
It comes as polling suggests that Reform is on course to win a huge majority at the next election. Today, the party announced former chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi, as its latest high-profile defection from the Tories.
Tameside is a traditional Labour stronghold and covers Rayner’s constituency, which the former deputy prime minister has held since 2015.
Any Reform gains in the council area could spell a stark warning ahead of the next general election, where polls already suggest Rayner’s seat is under threat.
In a letter to local party members sent ahead of an “urgent” meeting next week, North West regional director, Anthony Lavelle, offered a downbeat assessment of Labour’s position in Tameside, warning it could suffer serious losses to Reform.
He said: “I won’t put this lightly – we are fighting a losing battle here, and we urgently need your help.”
The threat of Reform UK “is now very real”, Lavelle said, pointing out that the party already has one councillor “active locally”, adding: “There is a genuine risk they will gain more seats.”
Reform secured its first elected councillor in Greater Manchester last April, when Allan Hopwood won a by-election in Tameside.
Lavelle said Reform UK is “already organising locally for May, and the only way to counter this is through a strong, visible grassroots campaign”.
The patch is also where the Labour Manchester mayor could reportedly bid to become MP for Gorton and Denton – if current independent Andrew Gwynne stands down – in the event of a challenge to Starmer’s leadership.
Danger to Labour stronghold
Recent polling has consistently suggested Reform would win a national majority if a general election were to happen, including seats currently held by senior Labour figures in Tameside.
According to a projection produced by More in Common, Reform UK would win Rayner’s Ashton-under-Lyne seat with 45 per cent of the vote compared to 20 per cent for Labour.
Reform was also projected to gain Gorton and Denton with 30 per cent of the vote over 28 per cent for Labour.
Rayner retained Ashton-under-Lyne in 2024 with a majority of only 6,791 over Reform. Labour has held the constituency since 1935.
Rayner has been touted as a future leadership contender, with strong support from unions and the Labour membership.
However, there appear to be concerns over whether the Stockport-born MP will be able to hold her seat in the next election. Labour has previously denied Rayner plans a so-called “chicken run” from her constituency to contest a safer seat on the south coast.
Her stock has fallen in recent months after she resigned from the Cabinet last September for failing to pay enough tax on her £800,000 flat in Hove.
Tameside is also where former minister for business and trade, Jonathan Reynolds, held his Stalybridge and Hyde constituency by 8,539 votes in 2024. The seat was another forecast to fall to Reform at the next election in the MRP poll.
No easy return for Burnham
The warnings will also add weight to claims that there is no easy path for Burnham to return as an MP and launch a campaign to oust Starmer as leader.
According to The Sun on Sunday, arrangements are being made for Gwynne to resign from his seat in Gorton and Denton, triggering a by-election that would be held on 7 May, the same day as the local elections.
The idea has been repeatedly denied by Gwynne, who says he will see out his entire term.
Labour has been in turmoil in the borough since Gwynne was sacked as health minister and lost the party whip last year after it emerged he sent a string of offensive and abusive messages in a WhatsApp group.
A number of Tameside Labour councillors were also suspended over their involvement in the scandal, which has emboldened rivals.
Reform and Conservative councillors were involved in a protest outside Gwynne’s office last year, at which demonstrators called on him to quit.
Burnham has previously dismissed reports that he is lining up a seat for a leadership bid as a “load of rubbish”, adding: “Reminds me why I left Westminster in the first place.”
Since winning five seats and 14 per cent of the vote in the 2024 general election, Reform has continued to soar in the polls and make inroads into mainstream politics, taking control of ten councils in England last May.
They included authorities across the country from Durham and Lancashire to Worcestershire and Kent.
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However, internal rows have broken out across several councils under Reform control, with Kent councillors suspended by Reform after a public row last October, condemning the current leadership in Kent as “narcissistic lunatics” earlier this month.
The party has also faced criticism after it emerged last week that all Reform-led councils are due to increase council tax this year, despite having pledged to cut it.
Reform has secured a number of high-profile Tory defections in recent months, with Zahawi announcing that he has joined Nigel Farage’s party to help deliver “a glorious revolution” in UK politics.
Labour declined to comment.
