European officials fear Donald Trump is preparing to blame them for Ukraine failure

European officials fear Donald Trump’s latest rhetoric on Ukraine aims to set them an impossible mission that will allow the US president to shift blame away from Washington if Kyiv falters in the war or runs short of cash.

After months of pressing Ukraine to settle with Moscow and give up Russian-occupied territory, the US president stunned European capitals on Tuesday by declaring on social media that Kyiv could “fight and win” all its land “with the help of the EU”.

While Trump’s new stance was welcomed in some quarters, several European officials concluded he was handing them responsibility for Ukraine’s defence with expectations that Europe would find hard to meet.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Thursday warned publicly that Trump’s “surprising optimism” disguised “a promise of reduced US involvement and a shift of responsibility for ending the war to Europe”. He added on X: “Better truth than illusions.”

Trump has also called on the EU to halt purchases of Russian oil and hit China and India with tariffs — steps that Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, a Trump ally, has long said he would block.

“This is the start of a blame game,” one official said of Trump’s abrupt change of heart. “The US knew that the China and India tariffs would be impossible” for the EU to accept.

Trump “is building the off ramp” so he can blame Europe when and if he needs to, a European government aide said. The shift was “spectacular” and “generally good”, but Trump was “setting a very high bar”, a German official noted.

Carlo Masala, international affairs professor at Bundeswehr University Munich, said “Trump wants to avoid that, after nine months in power, this war becomes his war too” and no longer just “Biden’s war”.

One European official noted Trump’s “Good luck to all!” sign-off on his Truth Social post as tantamount to a handover note.

Another European official said: “Everyone sees he is disengaging.”

After a bilateral meeting with Trump in New York on Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron, president of France, put a more positive gloss on the US leader’s statement, describing it as “very correct”.

“If we back Ukraine completely in this situation, the Russian economy is suffering, so there is an opportunity for a good future,” Macron added.

But EU leaders have concluded Trump is no longer a reliable ally, officials said.

Since about 20 Russian drones flew into Poland’s airspace this month, Tusk has also sought more support from his country’s Nato allies to respond to such incursions.

He said this week Warsaw was ready to “shoot down flying objects without discussion when they violate our territory” and called for “100 per cent certainty” that allies backed his stance. Asked on Tuesday whether Nato countries should be prepared to shoot down Russian jets that enter their airspace, Trump replied: “Yes.”

Trump’s tone on the Ukraine war has also shifted since he returned to the White House in January. Having clashed with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February, he has since softened his approach to Kyiv. On Tuesday, he hailed the Ukrainian leader as a “brave man”. 

The US president has also grown frustrated with his inability to end the war and with Vladimir Putin, telling the Russian president he must participate in peace talks or face consequences.

But Trump has yet to impose any direct costs on Moscow and has continued periodically to blame Zelenskyy for the conflict.

Since his Alaska summit with Putin, Trump has increased the pressure on European countries to take responsibility for ending the conflict.

Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister, told the Financial Times on Wednesday in Kyiv that Trump’s remarks on Ukraine “were not a spontaneous, emotional outburst”.

“They came from long, multi-layered discussions with Ukraine and European partners and US officials” over several weeks, said Kyslytsya, who was in the Oval Office with Zelenskyy and Trump during their latest meeting.

“They came as a result of [Trump] being presented intelligence” as well as advice from his top advisers, he added.

Kyslytsya took issue with the assertion by some European officials that the US president was backing away from Ukraine and laying out impossible conditions for them. He said Trump had made a strong point.

“The Europeans can do more and should do more,” he said, citing some EU members that purchase oil and gas from Russia.

In recent weeks the US president has focused on Russian energy exports to Europe. Though they have fallen steeply since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary and Slovakia continue to import Russian oil, while France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands buy Russian liquefied natural gas.

Trump said in his address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that he was willing to impose “powerful tariffs” that could “stop the bloodshed” in Ukraine — but only if countries in Europe were willing to impose the same measures.

“They’re buying oil and gas from Russia while they’re fighting Russia,” Trump said. “It’s embarrassing.”

He did not provide details on what those measures would be. But earlier this month, he called on the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on India and China — Russia’s biggest energy customers — a request seen as a non-starter in Brussels.

European officials struggled to believe Trump would follow through if they were to impose steep tariffs on Beijing and New Delhi, said Liana Fix, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“They don’t believe that Trump will follow suit,” Fix said. “He’s not reliable on that.”

Additional reporting by Leila Abboud in Paris