Russia will shift forces to Nato border if Ukraine deal struck, Finland warns

Russia would redeploy its forces towards Nato’s eastern flank if there is a peace deal in Ukraine, Finland’s prime minister has warned, urging Europe to give more money to defence in frontline states.

Petteri Orpo called for the rest of the EU to show solidarity with the eastern flank countries, which are dramatically increasing their defence spending. They are the leading financial backers of Ukraine in terms of GDP, even as many of their economies are suffering.

“We know that when there will be peace in Ukraine, Russia is still the threat. It’s obvious that they are going to move their military forces to near our border and near the Baltic border,” Orpo told the Financial Times. “It’s clear that we need financial support [from Brussels].”

Orpo will host the first eastern flank summit of eight countries that share a maritime or land border with Russia and Belarus on Tuesday.

The states will attempt to adopt common military capabilities in areas such as air defence, drones and land forces. They also want to discuss how to move weaponry and troops across the continent.

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Several Nato countries have warned that Russia would be ready for a major confrontation with the western military alliance within three to five years of the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.

Estonia, Lithuania and Poland are on course all to spend more than 5 per cent of their GDP on defence next year — well ahead of US President Donald Trump’s spending target — with other frontline states also increasing their military expenditure.

Orpo said it was important for Europe to be ready to defend itself as the US starts disengaging from the continent. “We know that the US is going to decrease the support and participation in defence in Europe because they have many other security concerns.”

Finland is one of the few countries in Europe not to have let its guard down against Russia, keeping up a formidable programme of preparedness including bomb shelters and vast supplies of critical materials as well as training of young people and elites.

But it has also been hit by a more than decade-long economic slump that is causing the government to slash public spending as its debt balloons.

“Our economy is in a very bad situation at this moment. It’s because of the threat from Russia. The atmosphere in Finland is very difficult,” Orpo said.

He said eastern flank countries were interested in not just €1.5bn of unused European money for military projects, but much of the around €130bn earmarked by the EU for defence in its next budgetary period.

His message reflects concern among some frontline countries that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a relaxation from some states further from the frontline, thinking that the threat had receded.

Orpo acknowledged that Europe faced “a huge week” to show that it was not only good at talking but also acting over peace in Ukraine, as EU leaders meet for a consequential summit on Thursday that could decide whether Ukraine goes bankrupt.

The bloc’s states will discuss overcoming Belgium’s resistance on frozen Russian assets to be used to fund Kyiv, and a trade deal with Latin American countries.

Orpo said that European leaders — led by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — had worked hard to find a solution to Belgium’s problem. ‘‘Now it’s time to make a decision,” he said.

Asked what would happen if Thursday’s and Friday’s EU summit ended without financial backing for Ukraine, he responded: “I don’t want to think about it. Because we don’t have any other options.”