Israel-Iran day 12 as it happened: Fragile truce appears to take hold after Trump rebukes Israel and Iran; White House hits out at ‘leaked’ intelligence assessment on Iran strikes

Oil prices remained lower as concerns receded that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz that connects Gulf producers with global markets.

Declines for Brent crude, the international benchmark, eased late on Tuesday, leaving it down 5.2 per cent from Monday’s close at $67.78 a barrel.

On Monday, Brent had touched a five-month high of $81.40 a barrel as markets got their first chance to respond to the US strikes in Iran.

“The conclusion has been made that Iran is no longer a viable threat to capital markets,” said Mike Zigmont, co-head of trading at Visdom Investment Group.

“This thinking will only be wise or foolish in hindsight,” he continued. “As long as a bolt from the blue never shows, the bulls will be vindicated.”

Iran’s president said Israel failed to destroy the country’s nuclear sites and knowledge.

Masoud Pezeshkian, in a message to the nation on Tuesday night, said: “The aggressor enemy failed in achieving its sinister aims, which were destroying facilities, declining nuclear knowledge, and social unrest.”

In comments to state media, Pezeshkian said that while Iran suffered loss of life — including women, children, scientists and commanders — and the destruction of buildings over the past 12 days, the damage suffered by Israel was “beyond imagination”.

US stocks ended the day within touching distance of a record high, as oil prices slipped and concerns eased over further escalation in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 ended Tuesday up 1.1 per cent, close to its February peak. Defence groups fell as the market rose, with Northrop Grumman, RTX and Lockheed Martin losing 3.1 per cent, 2.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4 per cent.

A senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, previously suspected to have been killed by Israel, appeared in public on Tuesday.

Major General Esmail Ghaani, who oversees the elite force’s overseas operations, took part in a rally in central Tehran celebrating what Iran called a “victory” in repelling Israeli attacks.

At least 17 senior Iranian military commanders were killed by Israeli strikes during the 12-day conflict, fuelling widespread speculation that Ghaani was among the dead.

The Revolutionary Guards had remained silent about his status throughout the fighting.

The White House has hit out at a “leaked” intelligence assessment that the US had failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites in its weekend strikes, in remarks that dismissed the findings as “wrong” but appeared to acknowledge their authenticity.

CNN reported that an early assessment by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency found that the strikes on three Iranian facilities had probably only set back the programme by months.

“This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN in a statement.

“Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”

In comments on Air Force One, US President Donald Trump attacked what he described as “fake news”, adding: “They hit the target perfectly, wiped it out. And the press is very disrespectful.”

Israel is prepared to repeat its assault on Iran if the Islamic Republic attempts to restart its nuclear programme, Benjamin Netanyahu has warned.

In a pre-recorded address broadcast on Tuesday night, the prime minister said that the massive bombing campaign waged by Israel and the US over the past 12 days had brought Iran’s nuclear programme to “ruin”.

But he added that Israel would not take its foot off the gas. “If someone in Iran thinks they can rebuild the nuclear programme, we will act in the same way,” he said. “I repeat: Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”

Netanyahu also thanked President Donald Trump for the US strikes on Iran’s underground Fordow enrichment facility and other crucial parts of its nuclear programme.

US stocks closed in on record highs, buoyed by a decline in the price of oil and the prospect of easing tensions in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 was up 1.2 per cent during afternoon trading in New York on Tuesday, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite was 1.6 per cent higher. Both indices were less than 1 per cent from their record closing highs in mid-February.

Boosting much of the market was a decline in the price of oil. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down 5.9 per cent at $67.21 a barrel. Accordingly, energy was the only sector in the S&P 500 that was in the red.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has called on the UAE to help clarify for Washington that the Islamic republic is not pursuing anything other than its legitimate rights.

“Iran is not Gaza or Lebanon that cannot respond to the Zionist regime’s military assault,” Pezeshkian told the president of the neighbouring Gulf state in a phone conversation, adding Tehran expected Abu Dhabi to “use your interactions with the US to make it clear to them that Iran is merely pursuing its legitimate rights and has no demands beyond that”.

He also called on the Emirati president to convey to the US that the Islamic republic was only seeking a better future for its own people and the region through engagement with its neighbours and the rest of the world.

Tehran’s governor said on Tuesday that the city’s policy of detaining undocumented people — a clear reference to the millions of Afghan nationals who are there illegally — had intensified, as the national hunt for alleged spies continued.

Stops and inspections had led to more undocumented people being removed, the governor said on Tuesday, according to local media.

The move comes as Iranian paramilitaries have cracked down on an alleged vast espionage network in the capital, built by Israel’s spy agency.

Israel said “the battle with Iran has not reached its end yet”, claiming it had pushed back Tehran’s nuclear ambitions by several years.

In a Farsi language post on X, the Israel Defense Forces chief of staff said: “We are entering a new stage that builds on the achievements of the current stage. We have driven back Iran’s nuclear project by several years, as well as its missile project.”

Earlier on Tuesday, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said the programme would not be stopped.

WhatsApp will be filtered in Iran due to concerns it could be used as an espionage tool, Iranian state media said.

By contrast, “Telegram will soon be unfiltered”, state media said, meaning citizens would be able to use it freely. “Telegram was neutral and stood on the right side.”

On Monday, the US House of Representatives banned Meta-owned WhatsApp on government devices due to privacy reasons.

Iran’s former foreign minister, who was the public face of its 2015 nuclear deal, said that “Iran has and will never surrender”.

“‘Art of the Deal’ with Iran requires respect; not bombs,” Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote on X. Iran’s military “proved that aggressors-whoever may stand behind them-have and will fail in their gamble”, he continued.

Zarif led Iran’s negotiations in 2015 over its nuclear programme which placed limitations on the country’s nuclear activities. US President Donald Trump pulled out of the landmark deal in 2018.

Iran’s reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said that his country would not violate the ceasefire, provided Israel also remained committed.

“If the Zionist regime does not violate the ceasefire, Iran will not violate it,” Pezeshkian said during a phone call with Malaysia’s prime minister, according to state media.

“We are ready to pursue the Iranian nation’s rights at the negotiating table,” Pezeshkian said, seemingly referring to the indirect nuclear talks with the US that have been suspended since the Israeli attacks.

Pezeshkian said that despite their problems and complaints, the Iranian people “once again showed they are united against the enemy”, which he said “was a heavy blow to the adversaries”.

JD Vance declared the era of a new Trump foreign policy doctrine after Washington’s military action against Iran and the ceasefire the US president announced between Tehran and Jerusalem.

The US vice-president said the development of this doctrine “will change the country (and the world) for the better”.

Vance summarised in a post on X that the doctrine comprised: “1) clearly define an American interest; 2) negotiate aggressively to achieve that interest; 3) use overwhelming force if necessary.”

Saying in a follow-up post that he was “proud” of Trump and the “whole team”, Vance wrote: “It turns out you can just do what you said you would do. No mission creep. No protracted, ill defined ‘nation building’ BS.”

Vance’s comments came after Trump warned Israel to stop bombing Iran and accused both sides of violating the ceasefire agreement.

US stocks hit a four-month high, helped along by a drop in oil prices and the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

The S&P 500 was up 0.7 per cent in mid-morning trading on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq was up 1.1 per cent. Shortly after Wall Street’s opening bell, the indices reached their highest levels since February 21.

While military action overnight challenged the ceasefire, oil prices remained lower, with Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, down 4.7 per cent.

“We are in remarkable times,” Russell Investments chief investment strategist Andrew Pease said. “I can’t imagine being bullish had I known in January about the Liberation Day policy chaos and that the US would bomb Iran’s nuclear capabilities.”

Iran’s former centrist president, Hassan Rouhani, has warned that a ceasefire does not signal an end to Israeli threats.

“A ceasefire can be an opportunity for plots and deception,” he was quoted as saying by domestic media. “Comprehensive intelligence, defence and security preparedness must be maintained. The national strategy should be restructured.”

Rouhani was the chief architect of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, which collapsed after the US withdrew from the agreement in 2018.

US President Donald Trump said that he does not want to see regime change in Iran.

“I don’t want it. I’d like to see everything calm down as quickly as possible,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One while en route to the Nato summit.

“Regime change takes chaos and ideally we don’t want to see so much chaos. So we’ll see how it goes.”

Trump floated the prospect of “regime change” in Tehran about a day after the US bombed three of Iran’s nuclear sites. “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN,” he wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday.

Donald Trump has posted a screenshot of a text message from Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte, congratulating the US president on the Israel-Iran ceasefire and promising more success at the Nato summit in The Hague.

It reads, in part:

Mr President, dear Donald,

Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran, that was truly extraordinary, and something no one else dared to do. It makes us all safer . . . 

The text, posted on Trump’s Truth Social platform, credits the US president with driving members of Nato to agree to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence:

Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe, and the world. You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.

Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.

Oil has reached close to its session lows as investors continue to track whether a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran will hold, letting risks to the market fade.

Brent crude was down 4.5 per cent at $68.23 a barrel, after US President Donald Trump said the truce will allow Iran to sell oil to China.

On Wall Street, the blue-chip S&P 500 rose 0.8 per cent in early trade and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1 per cent.

Donald Trump has said the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will allow China to continue to buy oil from Iran.

The US president posted on his Truth Social platform from Air Force One on his way to a Nato summit in The Hague:

China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!

Israel said its jets attacked one target in Iran in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack earlier in the day, despite a warning from President Donald Trump to hold fire as he accused both sides of violating a US-brokered ceasefire.

Israel had accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by firing two missiles on Tuesday morning at just after 7am, after the ceasefire began, and one more at 10am.

The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli jets struck a radar station near Tehran on Tuesday afternoon “in response to Iran’s violations”, but further strikes were called off after a call with Trump.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had fired 14 missiles at Israel “in the final minutes before the ceasefire”.

Iranian media have reported that the ceasefire was violated by Israel with attacks on the cities of Babolsar and Tehran.

There was no official confirmation from Iranian authorities.

Donald Trump declared that Israel would not attack Iran, insisting that the ceasefire he announced late on Monday was still in place.

“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran,” the US president wrote on Truth Social aboard Air Force One. “Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!”

He posted the comments shortly after saying he was unhappy with both Israel and Iran, but especially with Israel.

President Donald Trump called on both Israel and Iran to “calm down” and respect the US-brokered ceasefire as he left Washington for a Nato summit in Europe.

He told reporters:

I am not happy that Israel is going out now. There was one rocket, that I guess was fired overboard, which was after the time limit, and it missed its target. And now Israel is going out, these guys got to calm down. Ridiculous.

I didn’t like plenty of things I saw yesterday, I didn’t like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal. They didn't have to unload . . . the retaliation was very strong, but in all fairness Israel unloaded a lot.

Now I hear Israel just went out because they felt it was violated by one rocket that didn’t land anywhere. That’s not what we want, I’ll tell you. I am telling you, I am not happy about that Israel either.

Investors have warned that geopolitical risks in the Middle East are likely to remain elevated, even if Tuesday’s ceasefire holds.

“The uncertainty is likely to persist” over the medium term, said Matthias Scheiber, multi-asset head at asset manager Allspring.

He highlighted Israel’s stated aims, including nullifying Iran’s perceived nuclear and ballistic threats.

“It is unclear if any of them are fully achieved,” he said.

Donald Trump has accused both Israel and Iran of violating the ceasefire announced earlier on Tuesday, saying he is unhappy with both countries but particularly with Israel.

“Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I’ve never seen before, the biggest load that we’ve seen. I’m not happy with Israel,” he told reporters.

“You don’t go out in the first hour [of the ceasefire and] just drop everything you have on them,” he added. “I’m really unhappy.”

“I’m going to see if I can stop it,” the president said as he departed the White House ahead of flying to the Nato summit in The Hague. He said the two countries “have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing”.

In a post on his Truth Social platform minutes later, Trump called on Israel to hold fire and not respond to an earlier reported Iranian missile attack:

ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

Qatar’s prime minister has said that reported violations of the ceasefire agreed between Israel and Iran are “unacceptable”.

Speaking to the press on Tuesday, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said: “The violations of the ceasefire witnessed this morning are unacceptable and we hope that the ceasefire will hold and diplomacy will prevail.”

The prime minister said the US had asked Qatar to engage Iran in order to reach the ceasefire, leading to President Donald Trump’s announcement that Israel and Iran had agreed to stop fighting overnight.

Washington had proposed that Qatar “initiate communication with the Iranians in order to examine their preparedness” to a ceasefire proposal, he said.

Early on Tuesday, Trump thanked Qatar’s emir “for all that he has done in seeking peace for the region”.

Qatar summoned Iran’s ambassador to the Gulf state on Tuesday, the morning after an Iranian missile attack targeted a US military base on its territory.

Sultan bin Saad Al Muraikhi, Doha’s foreign minister, reiterated “strong condemnation” of the attack, and told Iranian ambassador Ali Salehabadi that Qatar had the right to respond. He added that Qatar had made “considerable diplomatic efforts” in advocating for dialogue with Iran.

Qatar’s defence ministry had said on Monday night that it “successfully intercepted” the Iranian missile attack, launched in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Al Udeid air base had mostly been cleared of personnel and US President Donald Trump later thanked Iran for “giving us early notice”.

Investors were moving back towards riskier assets, sending government borrowing costs higher and the US dollar lower.

The dollar slipped 0.4 per cent against a basket of other currencies, having strengthened over the last week in response to geopolitical risk.

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said:

Markets are much freer to jump back into popular strategic dollar shorts now that geopolitical and oil risks are being priced out.

Sovereign debt, generally considered to be a safer asset, sold off. Gold, also regarded as a haven asset, was down 1.4 per cent.

Risky assets including cryptocurrencies rose, sending bitcoin 1.5 per cent higher.

Iran’s foreign ministry said it remained committed to good relations with Qatar and other regional states, hours after the Islamic republic launched a barrage of missiles at a US military base in the Gulf state.

Iran’s strikes on the Al-Udeid base in Qatar were “an exercise of self-defence under the UN Charter” in response to the US’s “unprovoked aggression against Iran’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty”, the ministry’s spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei wrote on X.

He added that the Islamic republic would not allow US and Israeli “criminal aggressions and malign policies” to create divisions between Iran and “brotherly” regional states.

Tehran’s governor said that about 120 buildings were completely destroyed in the capital, while another 500 sustained severe damage, as a result of Israel’s attacks on Iran.

Iran’s judiciary said the Israeli attack on the notorious Evin prison — where many political prisoners are held — happened while families were visiting inmates, which increased the number of casualties.

Prison officials began relocating inmates to other facilities on Tuesday morning.

The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog welcomed news of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, and called for a “diplomatic solution” to the Iranian nuclear programme.

“I’ve written to [Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi] stressing this step can lead to a diplomatic solution to the long-standing controversy over [Iran’s] nuclear programme and proposed to meet soon,” Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a post on X.

The head of Iran’s military has denied that Iran fired any missiles towards Israel in recent hours, in response to reports of a new missile launch from Iran after the ceasefire agreement, state television reported.

Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, issued the denial in a video message pledging his allegiance to the Iranian people.

Russia has welcomed the US-brokered ceasefire, even as Israel accused Tehran of violating the deal.

Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, told reporters that Russia hoped that there would be a “sustainable ceasefire”, according to the Interfax news agency.

Putin told Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday that Russia was “making efforts to assist the Iranian people”, without elaborating. Peskov said that Russia had “given Iran its support through the clear position that we took”.

Surfers took shelter near the Haifa beachfront in Israel on Tuesday as air raid sirens sounded, shortly after Tel Aviv had accepted a ceasefire proposed by US President Donald Trump.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has warned that its military would respond to any further attacks by Israel.

Hailing “victory” in the conflict, the security council said the Iranian armed forces had “no trust” in Israel, and were prepared “with their fingers on the trigger” to deliver a “regret-inducing” response to any further attacks.

It also said the “triumph” in the conflict was a “divine reward” for the Iranian nation’s “remarkable vigilance, awareness and solidarity”.

Israel’s defence minister earlier said the military would retaliate “forcefully” to what he called a “violation of the ceasefire”, after reporting new missile fire from Iran.

Iran’s state television has denied the country broke the ceasefire with Israel.

Israel’s military earlier warned of new missile fire from Iran and vowed to retaliate, shortly after the two sides had agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire.

Oil prices have ticked up after Israel’s warning of new strikes from Iran.

Brent crude was down about 3 per cent on the day, at just under $70 dollars a barrel, having earlier been down nearly 6 per cent at $67.50.

Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said the country’s military would retaliate “forcefully” to a “violation of the ceasefire”, after reporting new missile fire from Iran.

Katz said in a statement:

I have instructed the Israel Defense Forces to respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with powerful strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran.

Israel said the missiles were intercepted without causing casualties.

Israel’s military warned of new missile fire from Iran, minutes after Israel announced it had agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire.

The Israeli military had warned that it was still on high alert and would respond “powerfully” to any violation.

Israel’s military said it had “fulfilled all of the objectives” of its campaign against Iran, but warned it would “prepare for a powerful response” to any violations of the ceasefire.

In a televised address on Tuesday morning, Israel Defence Forces spokesperson Effie Defrin said:

The IDF fulfilled all of the objectives that were set in Operation “Rising Lion”. The chief of staff [of the military] has instructed the military to remain on a high level of alert.

Defrin said Israeli fighter jets had struck targets in Tehran overnight, and that 20 missiles were fired at Israel on Tuesday morning.

European stocks rose in early trading after Israel said it had agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran.

The region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 1.4 per cent. Germany’s Dax climbed 2 per cent and France’s Cac 40 advanced 1.8 per cent. 

The FTSE 100 rose 0.7 per cent, weighed down by big energy stocks which fell on the lower oil price.

Futures contracts tracking the S&P 500 on Wall Street pointed to a 1 per cent rise.

The price of oil dropped sharply, with the international benchmark Brent crude falling 4.1 per cent to $68.60 a barrel. Shares in Shell fell 4.3 per cent, BP shed 5.6 per cent and TotalEnergies dropped 3.9 per cent.

The pound is rising, as currencies more exposed to investors’ risk-taking sentiment prosper after Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire. Sterling is up 0.5 per cent against the dollar at $1.359.

The greenback is down 0.4 per cent against a basket of currencies, giving up some of the gains it made as investors sought safety over the past week.

The Israeli government has confirmed that it has agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran, saying that “all of the objectives” of its military offensive had been achieved.

“In light of achieving the objectives of the operation, and in full co-ordination with President Trump, Israel has agreed to the President’s proposal for a bilateral ceasefire. Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire,” read a statement from the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The statement added that during its 12-day campaign, Israel had succeeded in “removing” the dual threats of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, had achieved “full control over Tehran’s skies” and had inflicted “severe damage” on the Islamic Republic’s military leadership and other government targets.

“The State of Israel achieved great historical achievements and placed itself on par with the world powers . . . and ensured the eternity of Israel,” the statement said.

Oil prices fell further on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped 3.9 per cent to $68.71 a barrel.

Oil prices had fallen sharply on Monday following Iran’s attack on a US base in Qatar, which markets judged to be a de-escalatory gesture that would stave off a more serious assault on energy infrastructure.

Iran’s state television said a ceasefire has been “imposed”, claiming that US President Donald Trump had called for a halt in hostilities “in a begging manner”. 

“The successful missile operation by the [Revolutionary] Guards, in response to US aggression, along with the exemplary resistance and unity of our dear people, imposed a ceasefire on the enemy,” the broadcast said.

Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest global aviation hub, has “resumed full operations” after a “precautionary pause” overnight.

Air travel in the region was disrupted by Iran’s retaliatory strikes on a US military base in Qatar, leading several Gulf states to close their airspace temporarily.

“Some flights may experience delays or cancellations,” said Dubai Airports.

Israeli paramedics said that three people had been killed after an Iranian missile hit a building on Tuesday morning. 

The strike in Be’er Sheba, a city in the south of the country, came as Iran fired four volleys of missiles in quick succession. 

A spokesperson for the Magen David Adom paramedic service said: “MDA teams have pronounced the deaths of three people — a woman around 40, a man around 40, and a man around 20.”