Shut out of meetings, environmental groups fight for Carney's consideration

On the second floor of the Lord Elgin Hotel in Ottawa, progressive economists, climate change experts and union representatives gathered for a meeting called the Elbows Up Economic Summit.

Overshadowed by the kick-off last week of the fall legislative session in the House of Commons just a ten minute walk away, the summit — on paper — was intended to chart a course to build a sovereign and sustainable economy. But in conversations in the hallways and speaker remarks from the stage, another theme emerged: a desperate fight for relevance as Prime Minister Mark Carney pursues a corporate-dominated, deregulatory agenda to build major projects, deepen trade with other countries and fend off economic aggression from the United States. 

It’s a dynamic and tense moment for environmentalists watching the new government implement the first concrete elements of its “build baby build” agenda. Speaking to reporters last week, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the upcoming federal budget, due to be released Nov. 4, “is going to be a generational investment,” as the government launches major infrastructure projects, housing initiatives, massive spending increases for the military and prepares to cut agencies and the federal workforce. 

Behind the scenes, there is a fight for influence to shape the Carney government’s priorities, and environmentalists and other progressives are finding themselves shut out in the cold. 

Jim Stanford, economist and director of the Centre for Future Work — one of the groups that organized the Elbows Up Economic Summit — told  Canada’s National Observer  the meeting was organized precisely because “a battle of ideas” is being waged, and there’s a shared concern from labour groups, environmental groups and others that the corporate sector is wielding outsized influence on the Carney government. 

“We see this in all kinds of ways … from changes to the carbon tax, the emphasis on accelerating project development, to signals … that other environmental restrictions will be reduced,” he said. 

He’s careful to not paint with too broad of a brush, emphasizing that he doesn’t believe Carney is “in the pocket of the business community.” Rather, there are competing influences from different corners, and one side is simply winning at the moment. 

Nonetheless, at this pivotal moment in the country’s economic trajectory, corporate concerns are being prioritized, and it’s up to countervailing voices to find leverage, he said. 

Last year, when polling suggested it was all but certain Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would topple Justin Trudeau’s government, civil society organizations were plotting how to shift from influencing officials through policy lobbying to a more outwardly watchdog role that could resist a nakedly pro-fossil fuel agenda. When Carney took the reins of the Liberal Party and rode to a minority government, the expectation among many groups was that the Trudeau playbook could be rerun to influence policy decisions. 

“We thought that it would be more the same than different, and it turns out we were completely wrong,” said Alex Cool-Fergus, national policy manager with Climate Action Network Canada — the country’s furthest reaching network of environmental organizations. 

As previously reported by Canada’s National Observer, many of the country’s largest climate advocacy groups are struggling to score high-level meetings with the Prime Minister’s Office even as the federal government develops a climate strategy. 

Against this backdrop is the grim state of Canada’s response to climate change. On Wednesday, the Canadian Climate Institute found that short of a radical change of course, the country’s 2030 emission reduction targets are now out of reach, due to increasing oil and gas production as emission reduction policies are clawed back and massive new fossil fuel infrastructure is built. 

The consequences for governments missing targets will mean a hotter planet leading to worsening climate disasters, more deaths from air pollution, at-risk species pushed further to the brink, and the severe risk that rising greenhouse gas emissions could trigger feedback loops that lock-in runaway warming. 

Draw the Line

On Saturday, from Halifax to Vancouver and dozens of cities in between, thousands of people took to the streets as part of a global campaign called Draw the Line. Around the world, the  protests played out across hundreds of cities and more than 85 countries, and were designed to exert public pressure on governments bankrolling wars and fossil fuels, while demanding an overhaul of a financial system that accumulates vast wealth in the hands of the billionaire elite. 

In Canada, those protests were focused on a list of demands for the Carney government to uphold Indigenous sovereignty, end the fossil fuel era, promote immigrant rights, reverse military spending to “end the war machine,” and put people over corporate profit. 

In Ottawa, hundreds gathered outside the prime minister’s office. It’s a show of force, but what happens next is the measure of success. 

James Rowe, an associate professor with the University of Victoria’s environmental studies program specializing in social movements, said multi-issue protests coming together is more typical under Conservative governments because insider influence is usually more achievable with Liberals. 

“Given the insider strategy that was more workable under the Trudeau government is not bearing fruit, as indicated by the difficulty in getting meetings while industry is getting some, it just makes complete and utter sense that folks would now pursue an outsider strategy of protest,” he said. 

The goal is to force the Carney government to pay a political price if it chooses to continue rolling back climate policies, such as the consumer carbon price and the electric vehicles sales mandate, and accelerating new fossil fuel infrastructure, he said. “Like any government, they have their fingers in the wind,” and polling indicates climate change is not a top-of-mind issue for Canadians concerned about economic vulnerabilities exposed by Trump’s trade war. 

Carney may have a stronger climate background than other major party leaders, but he’s a “political animal” and “not willing to sacrifice too much capital, unfortunately," Rowe said.

“If civil society is able to make enough noise with these protests, it offers the public some narrative grist to work with, and people can be made angry about climate change again,” which could tip the political calculus back toward stronger climate action, he said.

Louise Comeau, a senior advisor with Carleton University’s Re:Climate institute and member of  Canada’s Net Zero Advisory Body, said there’s huge value in peaceful, visible public protest to pressure governments, but she doubts Carney will react positively to them. 

“It’s so far on the left side of the spectrum, and for some reason, he perceives that he doesn’t need that,” she said. “That’s a problem because we voted for him. We need to be heard.”

“He needs to remember who brought him to the party.”

In July, polling firm Abacus Data found that even though climate change has fallen off the list of Canadians’ top three priorities (the cost of living, Trump and the economy at large rank highest), concern about climate change continues to grow. 

More than three quarters (77 per cent) of Canadians are worried about climate change’s impact, reflecting a “significant” 15-point increase since October. Moreover, 58 per cent believe Ottawa should prioritize both economic growth and climate action, with only 23 per cent believing climate progress should be delayed in favour of the economy. 

The federal government is preparing a climate competitiveness strategy that will be published this fall, Carney said earlier this month at a press conference where he announced a pause on the electric vehicle sales mandate. Framing the climate strategy with “competitiveness”  underscores his long-held belief that managing the risks posed by climate change are crucial to financial institutions and investors, while also hinting at the more industry-friendly side that has dominated since he was elected prime minister. 

Some government sources, granted anonymity by Canada’s National Observer to discuss the plans, expect the industrial carbon price and methane regulations to be strengthened, and Carney to hold the line on clean electricity and clean fuel regulations. The proposed cap on oil and gas emissions, on the other hand, appears the most vulnerable. 

The strength of the climate competitiveness strategy may be influenced by the Liberal Party’s new environmental caucus — a group of about 50 members who both Comeau and Rowe said could be an important source of leverage. 

There is room to thread the needle between slashing emissions and economic development, but it’s not yet clear how exactly Carney and his close advisors see it, Cool-Fergus said. Given the current political terrain, advancing climate action is “an all of the above situation,” that will require people in the streets and people in the room with Carney,” she said. 

Or as Rowe put it, there is a political wager being made, and “pressure is mounting both inside and out.”