This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email [email protected] with any questions.

From “The New York Times,” I’m Sabrina Tavernise, and this is “The Daily.”

[MUSIC PLAYING]

President-elect Donald Trump has promised a radically different approach to foreign policy from the Biden administration, perhaps nowhere more so than in Ukraine, where Trump has pledged to end the war in a day. But just weeks before he’s set to take office, the war has taken an unexpected turn. Today, my colleague Anton Troianovski on the conflict’s dangerous new phase.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

It’s Monday, November 25.

So, Anton, we’ve seen this real ratcheting up in the war in Ukraine over the past week. Help us understand what’s going on.

Well, we’ve seen a bunch of new developments that are really quite dangerous, quite escalatory. We have seen missiles flying across the border between Russia and Ukraine in a way we haven’t seen before. We have seen the Biden administration taking steps that they have not been willing to take before. And we’ve seen a new kind of rhetoric from President Putin in Moscow.

And what this all adds up to is that the war is becoming more dangerous, more volatile. And specifically, what’s happening is that we’re getting closer to this war in Ukraine turning into a broader war between Russia and the West.

So, Anton, this is very striking because just a few months ago, we were talking about the Russians digging into positions in Eastern Ukraine, and it was this protracted trench warfare. How did we get from there to here?

The turning point was early August.

Ukraine, broke that stalemate by invading Russia.

Ukrainian troops went into Russia’s Kursk region on the border, captured about 400 square miles of territory and delivered this huge embarrassment to Vladimir Putin, who, it turned out, couldn’t even protect what was internationally recognized Russian territory.

That incursion into Kursk was a big morale boost for Ukraine, but it came at a cost.

In order to do it, Ukraine had to thin out its troops in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia was advancing.

And as a result, Russia was actually able to push forward in Eastern Ukraine at a much higher clip than before.

In other words, for the first time in a long time, the front line was actually moving and it was moving to Russia’s advantage?

Exactly.

And then this fall, Vladimir Putin pulled out his own surprise.

— bringing in North Korean troops. Reportedly, there’s something like 10,000 troops from North Korea that are fighting or getting ready to fight on the Russian side.

And that was a really remarkable moment, right? Because suddenly, it’s about more than just Russia and Ukraine. There’s a third country involved.

Exactly. And think about North Korea, how important that country is strategically as a nuclear armed adversary of the United States, and what it shows about how close the strategic relationship between Russia and North Korea has become. That has sent shockwaves, really around the world.

OK. So you’ve laid out this pretty major shift in the war. But of course, all of this was happening in the months leading up to the US election, won, of course, by Donald Trump.

Exactly. And Donald Trump’s victory in the election is going to have enormous repercussions for the war. Remember his campaign. He refused to say that he wanted Ukraine to win the war. He promised to end the war in 24 hours, which was widely seen as him being open to a deal that could essentially sell Ukraine out to Russia.

He brought on JD Vance as his vice president, who has been extremely critical of American support for Ukraine. So you’ve had so many signals coming from the Trump camp that his presidency will be much tougher for Ukraine than the Biden presidency was.

So Trump’s election, in other words, was very bad news for the Ukrainians, because the Americans and Biden in particular, was their biggest ally, and he’s gone.

Yes. So when Donald Trump won, President Zelenskyy in Ukraine swung into win over Donald Trump mode. And he was one of the first world leaders to have a phone call with him. He tweeted, congratulating Trump on impressive election victory. And so there’s a hope in Ukraine that Trump will still want to support their fight, that supporting Ukraine will be kind of a way that Trump projects American strength globally.

But still, I think there’s a huge amount of concern among supporters of Ukraine everywhere that Trump will just see it as much less of a national interest for the US to allow Ukraine to keep fighting and somehow defeat Russia in this war.

Right. Which by definition, is good for Russia. So tell us how Putin and Russia are thinking about this Trump win.

So to step back for a sec, Putin’s fundamental bet throughout this war has been that at the end of the day, Russia cares more about Ukraine and is willing to sacrifice more to win in Ukraine than does the West than do the United States. And so to Putin, Trump’s victory shows that at the end of the day, many Americans don’t care enough about Ukraine to continue sending tens of billions of dollars of weapons there, and to be in a situation where Russia is threatening an escalation that could draw the US into a direct war with the world’s other nuclear superpower.

At the same time, it also brings Putin closer to something he could call victory in Ukraine, because Putin’s primary goal at this point is not to capture more territory. His main goal is some kind of deal that would allow him to end the war and say he won it.

OK, so basically with Trump’s victory, it really seemed like things were on a glide path to exactly the kind of outcome that Putin wanted.

Not quite. Because for one thing, Donald Trump is not in power yet. And the Biden administration has been very clear on seeking to continue to support Ukraine. That became even more clear in the last couple of weeks, when President Biden made a really important shift in his own policy.

For the first time, he allowed Ukraine to use American missiles to strike deep inside Russian territory. These missiles are called ATACMS. They have a range of 190 miles. Ukraine has been asking for months, if not longer, to be able to use these missiles for those kinds of strikes inside Russia in order to disrupt Russia’s ability to build up its forces, resupply its forces and wage this war. The Biden administration has resisted that because they’ve feared that would be the kind of thing that could really push Putin to escalate the war in a new way.

But then Putin brought in those North Korean troops that we talked about. And that apparently, as our colleagues in Washington have reported, is what pushed President Biden to change course and allow Ukraine to use those American missiles for strikes inside Russia.

And how soon does Ukraine make use of these long-range rockets?

Just about immediately.

Last Tuesday, they fired these ATACMS missiles and hit an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region of southwestern Russia. And then on Wednesday, Ukraine fired Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which are these British manufactured long-range missiles into the Kursk region. Neither of those, as far as we know did massive damage. But the symbolism was enormous.

For the first time, Ukraine was firing Western-provided missiles deep into Russian territory, leaving everyone asking, what does Putin do now?

[MUSIC PLAYING]

We’ll be right back.

So you’ve set up this very high-stakes moment for Putin. The US has crossed his red line, allowing the use of these missiles into Russia. They’re kind of throwing down the glove, if you will. What does Putin do?

The first thing we see is early in the week, less than two days after the news comes out that President Biden is going to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with those American-made missiles, Putin approves Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine.

What does that mean?

So it sounds bureaucratic, but it’s actually pretty serious. The nuclear doctrine defines how and when Russia would consider using its nuclear weapons. And remember, Russia has a massive stockpile of nuclear weapons. So Putin revises this doctrine to lower the threshold at which Russia would consider using nuclear weapons.

And not just that. He also updates it to say that an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint attack on Russia.

A looser trigger, so to speak. And specifically it relates to Ukraine because Ukraine, not a nuclear power, but the United States is a nuclear power.

Exactly. Putin has this enormous nuclear arsenal, but he hasn’t been able to figure out how to use it effectively as a deterrent against the US. And so that’s what this new doctrine is about, finding a new way, basically to scare Americans. And it seems that it did, in a way.

Last Wednesday, the US embassy in Kyiv issued this urgent warning, saying that Russia might launch a significant air attack and closed its embassy and told employees to shelter in place, which was a really rare move. Obviously, Kyiv has been attacked many, many times during the course of the last almost three years. And for much of that time the embassy has been operating. So closing the embassy was another signal that things were getting even more dangerous.

So what happens? Was there an attack?

So on Thursday, there was.

Russia does something it hasn’t done since the start of the war, which is to use a new missile, something similar to the kind that’s used to deliver strategic nuclear weapons.

We’re talking about something that would be used for a large-scale nuclear attack. And it uses this missile to strike in a Ukrainian city, Dnipro. This is a kind of missile that releases multiple warheads. So you see in videos of this attack, these multiple glowing orbs dropping one after the other. It’s the kind of missile developed to do really massive damage.

To be clear, this particular missile didn’t have nuclear warheads in it. But think about the message that that’s sending. And on top of all that, these warheads are designed to attack at hypersonic speeds, meaning multiple times the speed of sound.

Interesting. So air defenses don’t work against them?

Exactly. And so it was all about sending this signal that Russia was ready to respond and ready to escalate further.

So Putin keeps trying to get the West to listen, to pay attention.

Absolutely. And he doesn’t just launch that missile.

He then gives a speech, a televised speech to the nation of the kind he delivers very rarely.

He’s sitting in what looks like the same wood-paneled office as where he was when he launched the invasion in February 2022. He looked pretty tired, pretty weary, aggrieved. And he says —

”— we consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allowed their weapons to be used against our facilities.”

In other words, a direct reference to what happened with Biden allowing the use of the ATACMS?

Exactly. Last week.

And so it sounds like what he’s saying here is that he would be willing to attack the US.

Yeah, it’s the kind of threat he’s made throughout this war, kind of vaguely. But this is the most explicit we’ve heard him say this. And toward the end of the speech, he lays that out and then comes back with yet another threat. He says —

“I would like to emphasize once again that it was not Russia, but the United States that destroyed the international security system. And by continuing to fight and cling to its hegemony, they are pushing the whole world into a global conflict.”

“We have always preferred and are ready now to resolve all disputes by peaceful means, but we are also ready for any turn of events. If anyone still doubts this, make no mistake, there will always be a response.”

So this is pretty remarkable and seems pretty frightening. What did you make of it, Anton? I mean, you’ve been following Putin for a long time.

Yeah. I mean, Putin has been making threats toward the West, including with references, veiled references to his nuclear arsenal since day one of the invasion. But what makes this situation, I think particularly concerning is the specificity of it. Putin’s previous threats have been quite vague. And so that’s the concerning thing here.

So what does all of this mean for the possibility of an end to the war, of a settlement like we’ve been talking about?

Well, it’s definitely a strange moment because people have been talking more seriously about the potential for a settlement and how that would look then really, at any point since the early months of the war. And so as that’s happening, you have Putin going essentially all in on this escalatory threat that if he continues to make good on it, would clearly make it harder for Donald Trump to actually engage in some kind of negotiations with Putin.

Think about obviously, God forbid, if there were to be a direct Russian attack on any kind of American facility, how could Donald Trump at that point do something that would make it look like he is doing Putin’s bidding in Ukraine?

Right. But I guess big picture here, Putin does want the war to be over, and he seems to be in a pretty good position to achieve that.

Yes, he does. But there’s still a few weeks to go before Trump comes in and starts trying to end this. And so in the meantime, there’s this pretty frantic, incredibly bloody effort by both sides, by both Russia and Ukraine to try to grab as much territory or hold on to as much territory as possible before potential negotiations begin. So what you’re seeing for one thing is Putin pushing really hard to get the Ukrainian military out of Kursk. And that, of course, is also where Ukraine is using those new American and British missiles to try to slow the Russian counteroffensive there.

And then you’ve also got Russia really pushing hard in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, trying to grab as much territory as they can despite those casualty rates of 1,000 people a day or more that Russia is losing. So there’s definitely a lot of jockeying happening ahead of the expectation that when Trump comes to power, he’ll at least try to create the conditions for some kind of settlement.

OK, so fundamentally, we are now likely looking at the beginning of the end of this war with Putin as the winner.

Well, he’s still got to get a deal. And ultimately, he’ll still need to sit down at some sort of negotiating table to get that. He’s been pretty explicit about what he wants. He’s made clear that he will not give up territory, the territory that Russia has captured, that’s for sure. But what Putin clearly cares more about than territory is the political aspect and the geopolitical aspect of some kind of agreement.

So most important is that Ukraine will never join NATO. And then on the other end, of course, Ukraine clearly is going to have a say in this as well. For Ukraine, what’s become clear is that for them, also, territory is not the most important thing. It does look like there’s more and more acceptance that in order to bring this war to a close, Ukraine will have to accept Russian occupation of part of its lands.

So what Ukraine cares about the most is what are referred to as security guarantees. How will Ukraine feel assured that Russia won’t just reconstitute its forces and attack again a few years from now? So then the question is going to become, how can Ukraine get security guarantees without being part of the NATO alliance? Will countries actually sign up for some kind of agreement in which they’ll be treaty bound to come to Ukraine’s defense if Russia attacks again?

Right. If there’s anything we’ve learned over the past few weeks, it’s just how tenuous that Western support can be.

Yeah, definitely. Russia and Ukraine actually did sit down at the negotiating table together in the first few weeks of the war. And one of the reasons we’ve reported that that negotiation fell apart back in the spring of 2022 is that they couldn’t actually figure out a mechanism for those security guarantees for Ukraine that would work.

Interesting.

How do you make Ukraine feel reasonably safe from a new Russian attack? That was never solved back then, and it’s clearly going to be the biggest challenge now.

And that’s a really hard problem to solve. The West is tired, and it clearly does not seem very inclined to come to the aid of Ukraine, this country that is the obsession of this very tenacious and very dangerous leader, Putin. So at the end of the day, Anton, is Putin getting away with it?

Well, let’s remember, first of all, that both the West and Putin have been surprised repeatedly during this war by Ukraine’s tenacity and Ukraine’s will to fight. We have not seen much sign at this point, even though Ukrainian soldiers are clearly very tired and Ukraine is struggling to get enough men on the battlefield, but still, we’re not seeing that Ukraine is actually ready to stop fighting. And that means you could even imagine a scenario where even if Trump tries to force some kind of peace deal, Ukraine might try to continue to fight.

But big picture, Sabrina, you raise an important point, Putin has been waging the biggest war of aggression that Europe has seen since World War II. It’s a war that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives in terms of killed and injured soldiers, and not to mention the civilians that have died in Ukraine. But despite all the Western sanctions and the tremendous amounts of weaponry that Ukraine has received from the West, Putin is still going. Domestically, he’s as powerful as he’s ever been.

And globally, he may be a pariah in the West, but outside the West, Russia continues to have a lot of influence. So as we approach the three-year mark of this war, it is time, I think, for serious questions about what the West has and hasn’t been able to accomplish in supporting Ukraine. The West has been able to keep Ukraine in the fight, but it has not been able to stop Putin.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Anton, thank you.

Thank you. Sabrina

We’ll be right back.

Here’s what else you should know today. President-elect Donald Trump has picked Scott Bessent to serve as Treasury Secretary. Bessent is a billionaire hedge fund manager who once supported Democrats, but now endorses the Republican agenda of cutting taxes, rolling back federal regulations and enacting the sweeping tariffs that Trump has promised. He’ll also oversee trade talks with China. The selection came after weeks of debate by Trump and his advisors about who should win the most prominent economic job in his administration.

Today’s episode was produced by Rob Szypko, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Michael Simon Johnson, and Will Reid. It was edited by Maria Byrne and Patricia Willens with help from Michael Benoist, contains original music by Marion Lozano, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

That’s it for “The Daily.” I’m Sabrina Tavernise. See you tomorrow.

[MUSIC PLAYING]