Chiefs at the bye: 3 predictions for the second half of the season

The Kansas City Chiefs have reached their bye week with a 5-4 record, as the break comes roughly halfway through their season.

With that in mind, let’s take a look into The Athletic’s crystal ball while predicting how the rest of the 2025 campaign will turn out.

1. The Chiefs’ final record will be …

I said 11-6 for The Athletic’s AFC West preview, and I think the Chiefs still get there.

As mentioned in this week’s story, after the Chiefs’ loss to the Buffalo Bills, this K.C. squad is one of extremes. While the Chiefs’ record is worse than expected, they’re actually playing — on a per-down basis — better than the markets would’ve anticipated coming into the season. That’s reflected in the fact that, even after the Chiefs sat out the trade deadline, they remain the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LX.

Following an action-packed trade deadline and the first half of the regular season, the NFL season still appears to be completely wide open…

The latest Super Bowl odds, per @BetMGM :https://t.co/1pHxCms9yd pic.twitter.com/R9jfz8CFEj

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 4, 2025

FTN Fantasy’s all-encompassing DVOA numbers say a normal team putting up the Chiefs’ underlying stats would be expected to have 6.5 wins given their production. Instead, K.C. — while going 0-4 in one-score games — is stuck at five wins, while still displaying promising stats that shouldn’t be ignored.

Most encouraging is that the Chiefs’ offense has ascended once again toward “best offense in the NFL” form. Perhaps the easiest way to see this is by looking at touchdown rate, which is the percentage of offensive drives the Chiefs have turned into TDs.

The Chiefs are trending toward their second-best offense in the Patrick Mahomes era — and one that’s significantly better than the last two seasons, which both still finished with Super Bowl appearances.

We can also say this: The Chiefs project to be betting favorites in all eight of their remaining games. In fact, the toughest matchup left should be the team’s next game against the Denver Broncos, with some sportsbooks already giving K.C. a 2 1/2-point edge.

Week 9 Most Correct And Objective NFL Power Rankings pic.twitter.com/SunZnaubSt

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 5, 2025

Being a betting favorite in eight games isn’t the same thing as predicting the Chiefs will run the table. Face enough coin-flip-type games and a team is bound to lose some of those.

The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator puts the Chiefs’ most likely outcome at 10-7. I don’t think it’s too much to say the Chiefs could slightly overperform that, with their future results better aligning with their snap-by-snap performance.

2. The Chiefs’ run game won’t be a story (again) very soon

It’s amazing how single-game results potentially can change the course of history.

I’d have to think that if the Chiefs had beaten the Bills on Sunday, there might not have been as much clamor for the team to upgrade before this week’s trade deadline.

Yet, we know what happened. The Chiefs fell to 5-4 … which raised more questions about their two perceived weaknesses (running back and defensive tackle) … which led to a lot of online hand-wringing when the Chiefs didn’t make a trade.

It’s been a bit of a running joke on my weekly Kansas City sports radio appearances, but I do firmly believe this to be true with the Chiefs:

When they win, no one talks about the run game. When they lose, everyone talks about it.

Follow that theory, and yes, the run game became a big deal again this week after a 28-21 road loss to the Bills.

I still struggle with this one, because the evidence doesn’t point me to a place where I think the Chiefs would be helped much by a running back upgrade.

Start with this: Earlier, I mentioned FTN Fantasy’s DVOA stats, which tell us play-by-play how successful an offense has been.

Want to guess the Chiefs’ ranking in run offense this season?

It’s sixth … or exactly the same ranking the team’s pass offense has.

Sure, it might not seem like it based on the eye test. The Chiefs have gotten almost no explosive runs for two consecutive years. So what gives?

Much like a baseball team that doesn’t hit home runs but consistently puts runners on base, the Chiefs’ run game has excelled in an essential but different area: avoiding lost yardage.

Per TruMedia, the Chiefs have two of the best four backs in the NFL at avoiding negative plays. Isiah Pacheco (7 percent) is best in the NFL when it comes to percentage of runs that are zero or fewer yards, while Kareem Hunt (11 percent) is fourth in the same metric. That’s out of 47 qualified running backs.

It might not be flashy, but it can still be effective. Pacheco and Hunt are both bigger backs who tend to move the pile forward, gaining an extra 2-3 yards on carries that a different back might fail to get.

And that’s why most running-back advanced measures indicate that the Chiefs’ running backs are … fine? Maybe even above average?

Hunt, for instance, averages 0.8 yards over expected per carry per Next Gen Stats’ metrics. That ranks 13th out of 43 qualified running backs, and also is the same total as Baltimore Ravens’ Derrick Henry and the New York Jets’ Breece Hall (a name you might’ve heard a lot lately).

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Pacheco, meanwhile, ranks 13th in DVOA among qualified running backs. Hunt is 18th.

And all that ignores a larger point: The run game is going to matter less to the Chiefs than most teams.

According to SumerSports, the Chiefs entered last week as the top NFL team in passes over expected. Coach Andy Reid (for good reason) loves to put the ball in Mahomes’ hands to dictate games, and we shouldn’t expect that to change much.

There’s also simple math to this. The Chiefs’ expected points per dropback this season, per TruMedia, is 0.18. The expected points per designed rush is 0.04.

This is a passing league, and when the Chiefs are dominant, it’s because their passing game reaches an elite level that renders many other facets moot.

Look for K.C., then, to get back to that in future weeks after the bye. Which means … when the Chiefs win, you’ll hear less about the run game.

That just seems to be the way things play out.

We could see more of this from Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis in the second half of the season. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

3. One defensive player is about to take off

We talked about the Chiefs’ underlying numbers, which indicate the team is likely on the verge of better results ahead.

The player version of that? It’s defensive end George Karlaftis, who appears to be just an eyelash away from a major breakout in his fourth NFL season.

Karlaftis — still just 24 — is atop many of the advanced pass-rushing leaderboards even while his sack total (five) lags behind those metrics.

At Pro Football Focus, Karlaftis ranks fifth in its “pass rush productivity” metric (minimum 80 percent of snaps played), which takes into account sacks, hits and hurries per pass rush. He’s also sixth in “win rate,” which takes into account how often he beats the opposing blocker on pass-rush snaps.

At Next Gen Stats, Karlaftis is ninth in pressure rate. That number is backed by a “Pass Rush Get Off” time that ranks 20th among qualified defensive linemen — and a 0.88-second average time that is similar to Karlaftis’ uptick from a season ago.

One other data point: NFL analyst Brandon Thorn released his updated “True Pressure Rate” this week based on his own charting, and Karlaftis ranked sixth behind five players who have all previously been named Pro Bowlers: Detroit Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson, Houston Texans’ Will Anderson, Green Bay Packers’ Micah Parsons, Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Verse and Jacksonville Jaguars’ Josh Hines-Allen.

Karlaftis, in other words, is doing well to control what he can. He’s getting consistent pressure while putting himself in position to make big plays.

Now, it’s just about finishing those snaps — and being disruptive when he does. Karlaftis hasn’t forced a fumble this season, for instance, and he’s not yet on pace to break his career-best 10.5-sack total from the 2023 season.

There’s no reason he shouldn’t do both of those, however, given the way he’s trending and what the under-the-hood numbers say about his play.

Look for a big second half from the Chiefs’ defensive end, who might be a little luck away from a turn into top-of-the-league-type production.