Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid didn’t want to get to this point. There’s no question about that.
The Chiefs have struggled to a 6-10 record and will miss the playoffs. It’s the rare blip for a team that had reached seven straight AFC Championship Games.
This disappointment, though, also provides a rare opportunity for K.C. and the team’s front office under general manager Brett Veach: The chance to draft early.
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It’s a reality that isn’t lost on Reid, who said Monday that the team would embrace the chance to add some impact talent in April’s draft.
“It’s something to look forward to,” Reid said. “It’s not where you want to be (record-wise), but it is where we are. We’ve got good people doing the picking, headed up by Brett.”
So how early will the Chiefs’ first-round selection be? The Athletic’s NFL Simulator can help simplify a complicated equation that comes down mostly to team record and strength-of-schedule tiebreakers.
We know this: K.C. will be selecting as high as eighth or as low as 12th, depending on how these final-week results play out. The most likely outcome is the Chiefs picking ninth, which happens in 38 percent of the program’s simulations.
No, the Chiefs won’t be tanking for draft position in Sunday’s road game against the Las Vegas Raiders. In fact, K.C. sits as a comfortable 5.5-point betting favorite, with a depleted Raiders roster entering on a 10-game losing streak.
Still, Chiefs fans who want the team to get the best draft position shouldn’t mind a loss Sunday. Those fans should also be cheering for the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, as those teams getting wins could help push (or keep) K.C. above them in the draft pecking order. The Saints play the Falcons, so one of them will pick up a win, barring a tie game.
It’ll be an unprecedented situation for Veach, no matter how this week’s games turn out.
Veach, who has been the Chiefs’ GM for nine years, has never had a draft pick higher than 21st. And even that one — he used it on cornerback Trent McDuffie in 2022 — required a trade up in the first round from No. 29.
The Chiefs’ last top-10 pick was taking quarterback Patrick Mahomes in 2017. That required a significant trade as well, with the Chiefs sending an additional first- and third-round pick to the Buffalo Bills to jump those 17 spots.
It’s difficult to overstate how important this additional draft capital might be.
One way to look at it? According to the respected Rich Hill draft chart, the ninth pick (where the Chiefs are projected now) is worth 387 points. If you combine all of the Chiefs’ seven draft picks from a year ago, you get to 430 points.
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In essence, based on past trends, the Chiefs’ first selection in 2026 could be expected to bring nearly as much value as the team’s entire draft class a season ago.
And that doesn’t even take into account the other days in the draft, as K.C. also will be picking toward the top of each round.
This could give Veach some flexibility, too. Could there be a QB-needy team that wants to trade up in the first round? The Chiefs certainly could listen on calls to move back in the draft while looking to restock the roster for both 2026 and the future.
The Chiefs’ steadily improving draft position has been about the only positive from a year that failed to hit expectations. K.C. has gone 1-8 in one-score games, which killed its playoff chances but also put the franchise in this unlikely — but favorable — spot ahead of the 2026 draft.
Reid, meanwhile, has only had one top-10 pick during his 13 years with the Chiefs. That was during his first season in 2013, when the team selected left tackle Eric Fisher with the No. 1 pick.
