Live Presidential Forecast
Last updated
Live Presidential Forecast
Presidential Forecast
Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›
Chance of winning
Trump
Electoral college estimate
Trump 312
286 to 312
Harris 226
226 to 252
226
Harris
312
Trump
Popular vote estimate
Trump +1.5
Harris +0.56 to Trump +4
Chance of winning
Trump
Electoral college estimate
Trump 312
286 to 312
Harris 226
226 to 252
226
Harris
312
Trump
Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›
Chance of winning
Trump
Electoral college estimate
Trump 312
286 to 312
Harris 226
226 to 252
226
Harris
312
Trump
Popular vote estimate
Trump +1.5
Harris +0.56 to Trump +4
Which states will decide the election?
These seven battleground states comprised 93 electoral college votes. Trump won seven of these states, securing victory.
Live forecast by state
As votes are counted in each state, our model adjusts its estimates in other areas with similar demographics and voting history. Select a state to see detailed results and estimates.
| Race | Percent of votes in Votes in | NYT win probability NYT win prob. | NYT estimate of final vote NYT est. of final vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | 100% | Harris | D +6.3 | ||
| N.M. | 100% | Harris | D +5.9 | ||
| N.J. | 100% | Harris | D +5.4 | ||
| Va. | 100% | Harris | D +5.2 | ||
| Minn. | 100% | Harris | D +4.3 | ||
| Neb. 2 | 100% | Harris | D +3.8 | ||
| N.H. | 100% | Harris | D +2.9 | ||
| Wis. | 100% | Trump | R +1.1 | ||
| Mich. | 100% | Trump | R +1.5 | ||
| Pa. | 100% | Trump | R +2.1 | ||
| Ga. | 100% | Trump | R +2.3 | ||
| N.C. | 100% | Trump | R +3.4 | ||
| Ariz. | 100% | Trump | R +4.3 | ||
| Nev. | 100% | Trump | R +4.6 | ||
How our forecast has changed
These charts show how our forecast has changed over the course of the night. As a rule, when the electoral vote estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy.
Estimated margin
Estimate of final electoral vote count
The lines below include a shaded range showing our model’s uncertainty. As more results are reported, the uncertainty around the estimates will narrow.
Chance of winning the presidency
2024 General Election Results
Results by state
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- Washington, D.C.
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming