Trump’s Tariffs Set Off Day of Anger, Retaliation and Market Unease

The United States helped China modernize and expand its economy in the hope that China would become more like America — more democratic and more open. Now for some Chinese, the United States is looking more and more like China.

“Coming from an authoritarian state, we know that dictatorship is not just a system — it is, at its core, the pursuit of power,” Wang Jian, a journalist, wrote in an X post criticizing Mr. Trump. “We also know that the Cultural Revolution was about dismantling institutions to expand control.”

For these Chinese, who strive for democratic values but contend with an authoritarian state, their role model is tearing itself down. They are expressing their alarm in interviews, articles and social media comments that range in emotion from disappointment and anger to sardonic.

“Beacon of democracy, 1776-2025,” wrote a commenter on a post by the official Weibo social media account of the U.S. Embassy in China.

They’re witnessing things they thought could happen only in China: sycophantic official announcements, intimidation of the media and top entrepreneurs vying for favor from the leadership, not to mention a president who calls himself a king.

“I’m overwhelmed with a sense of familiarity — it feels so much like China,” Zhang Wenmin, an investigative journalist known by her pen name, Jiang Xue, told me. Ms. Zhang was forced to leave China because of her work and moved to the United States in 2023. “I’ve just gotten out of the frying pan and into the fire,” she said.

Of course, the two countries are fundamentally different.

China is a one-party state lacking in three pillars of the American system: liberty, democracy and the rule of law. Millions of Chinese died during the Cultural Revolution, and tens of millions were persecuted. What’s happening in the United States is far from that. “It’s not exactly parallel,” Ian Johnson, an American journalist who has been writing about China for decades, told me. “But historical parallels are never exact because history doesn’t really repeat itself.” The American system is tearing itself apart with no outside pressure, he said, and this is similar to what the Communist Party did at the peak of the Cultural Revolution in 1966.

After the Cultural Revolution, which destroyed nearly all institutions in China, the country tried to build something like those American foundations. Despite official restrictions, lawyers, journalists and entrepreneurs built a budding civil society that tried to hold the government accountable.

These are the Chinese who suffered the most when Mr. Xi smothered efforts to make China a more open and democratic society, and they’re also the most disappointed at what’s happening in the United States.

They have been shocked by the abrupt changes in U.S. policy under President Trump. Most striking is the language government agencies have used in social media postings. The tone, people say, sounds like Chinese Communist Party propaganda.

“Even the CCP’s embassy posts, with all its propaganda, doesn’t spend every single day obsessively praising Xi Jinping,” Deng Haiyan, a former police officer turned critic of the Chinese government, wrote on X.

“You’d think People’s Daily had moved into the U.S. Consulate,” he wrote, referring to the official newspaper for the Chinese Communist Party.

The official Weibo account of the U.S. Embassy in China, which has 3.5 million followers, used to be a platform for the U.S. government to spread American values and reliable information. Chinese who share those values would sometimes use the comment sections of the account to vent about their own government.

R. Nicholas Burns, who was the U.S. ambassador in China until January, talked about the importance of using social media to interact with the Chinese public. “One of the major preoccupations of our mission,” he said in a speech in 2023, “is to try to tell the truth about American society, American history, U.S.-China relations to the Chinese people.”

That truth telling, he added, was meant to counter a distorted version of the United States from the Chinese official media. The Weibo account was intended as a Chinese-language bulletin board about American values.

In the past month, many of the embassy’s Weibo posts, which overlap with some of the posts on its X account, were flooded with angry comments from Chinese users expressing disappointment.

“Shame on you!” many Weibo users with IP addresses in China commented on posts about the U.S. policies toward Ukraine.

On a post about remarks Mr. Trump made about human rights, one user wrote: “And you think you’re worthy of talking about human rights? You betrayed Ukraine!”

The changes of both content and style on the Weibo account led one commenter to tease the account’s social media editor: “Blink twice if you’ve been kidnapped.” The embassy press office declined to comment.

For many Chinese, the chaos in Washington is driven by a familiar impulse.

“The only way to dismantle America’s ‘deep state’ is through a ‘Cultural Revolution,’” Zhang Qianfan, a professor of law at Peking University, wrote in a widely circulated article about the erosion of American democracy. “The Cultural Revolution brings neither honesty nor efficiency — only the demolition of the rule of law essential to everyone’s survival.”

The characteristics of authoritarian leaders, such as surrounding themselves with loyalists and trying to control the media, are not unique to China.

During the Cultural Revolution, Mao promoted a semiliterate peasant to the office of vice premier and a low-level cadre at a textile mill to be his deputy at the age of 38.

For his third term, Mr. Xi has surrounded himself with loyalists, many of whom did not go to elite Chinese universities. Neither do they have lengthy experience working in the central government, unlike members of the previous two Chinese administrations.

Last week, when the U.S. Embassy in China posted on its Weibo account that the White House would pick the media outlets allowed to participate in the presidential press pool, a user in the southwestern city Chongqing commented, “Selectively allowing certain media outlets to conduct interviews — such a familiar tactic.”

For Chinese, one of the most astonishing aspects is how fast Mr. Trump seems to be building a cult of personality.

After he showed off hats that said “Trump was right about everything,” a user on X wrote in Chinese: “Mao Zedong of America has been born! Long live the great leader Chairman Trump — long live, long live, long long live!”

Li Weiao, a Beijing-based journalist, posted a video clip on Weibo that shows Mr. Trump enjoying a standing ovation at his first cabinet meeting in his second term. “I think I truly underestimated the dark side of human nature,” he wrote on Weibo.

“The rhythm of this applause feels so familiar,” a lawyer commented on Mr. Li’s post. Another commenter wrote: “Just like North Korea and its friend,” referring to China.

In a comment on an episode of my Chinese-language podcast, a YouTube viewer wrote a parody of a White House announcement in the style of Communist Party propaganda.

“The entire Republican Party and all of America must unite even more closely around the White House Central Committee with President Trump at its core, holding high the great banner of American-style capitalism,” the user wrote. “We must fully implement Trump’s New Era American Capitalism Thought, stay united in purpose, uphold tradition while innovating, forge ahead with determination, and fight tirelessly to achieve the great MAGA goal!”

But even after all of that, Mr. Trump imposed the tariffs anyway, shaking global markets. The move left officials in both countries baffled about what the White House was trying to accomplish and frantically asking the same question: What was Mr. Trump’s endgame?

Even some people close to the president seem to disagree on the answer.

Some outside advisers predict that the tariffs, which are currently at 25 percent on most imports from Mexico and Canada, will result in a steady stream of revenue for the United States.

Others maintain that they are Mr. Trump’s attempt to shake up the global order and flex his muscles on the world stage.

Many believe that the president, who has seen trade deficits as a crisis for decades, is simply trying to follow through on a threat that he has dangled over Mexico for months. By pressing forward, they say, Mr. Trump is seeking to ensure that he is seen as tough among world leaders as he pushes his foreign policy agenda in other global hot spots, including Gaza and Ukraine.

Mr. Trump had initially announced the tariffs shortly after taking office. But he delayed their imposition right before they were to take effect in early February, after speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada. He gave them about another 30 days to show results.

On Monday, the White House said that the tariffs were going forward because both Mexico and Canada had “failed to adequately address” the flow of drugs into the United States, noting that the cartels have “an intolerable relationship with the government of Mexico.”

That statement prompted some experts in Mexico to theorize that perhaps Mr. Trump wanted Mexico to go harder after politicians accused of corruption.

“Trump keeps insisting on this point, and Sheinbaum has done absolutely nothing on those links,” said Eduardo Guerrero, a security analyst based in Mexico City.

Still, there was little more to go on than theories at this stage. And regardless of what Mr. Trump’s actual motivations might be, his decisions have resulted in a state of confusion and frustration on both sides of the border.

Two Mexican officials said that they had reached a limit on what they were able to offer in an effort to avoid the tariffs, and that it was unclear what more Mexico could have done on security. They cautioned, though, that they still had very little understanding of what else Mr. Trump might want.

Mr. Trump’s moves have also bewildered some American officials who have worked for years on issues related to drug cartels. They expressed concern that without a clear path forward, the tariffs could jeopardize any future security cooperation with Mexico, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Even some within the Trump administration recognized that the imposition of the tariffs may have finally exhausted the Mexican government’s willingness to work with the United States and that the country may have little additional capacity to deliver further wins.

But even though there was some internal pushback about the tariffs, Mr. Trump’s advisers no longer voice the sort of robust disagreement on what he wants that they did during his first term.

The puzzlement about the tariffs was being felt even after high-level meetings last week in Washington between a delegation from Mexico and senior U.S. officials to hammer out a security agreement between the two countries.

The goal of the talks from the Mexican perspective was to avoid the tariffs altogether by reaffirming Mexico’s desire to work in concert with the United States on cracking down on the cartels and stemming the flow of illicit drugs across the border.

U.S. officials used the talks as the backdrop to reveal a secretive but spectacular development they hoped would appeal to Mr. Trump. Just before the delegation left Washington, Mexican officials announced that they were delivering into U.S. custody dozens of cartel leaders and were even speeding up the process of turning them over by skirting their country’s normal extradition laws.

That move, lauded as a win for Mr. Trump, was widely viewed as one of the most important efforts by Mexico in decades to send drug traffickers to face charges in American federal courts. While the deal was based on negotiations that had started during the last administration, it was hastily concluded by diplomats and law enforcement officials in time to be ready for the meetings last week, according to the people familiar with the matter.

Those expelled from Mexico were some of the most powerful and violent cartel leaders in the country’s history.

Among them was Rafael Caro Quintero, a Sinaloa cartel figure who masterminded the torture and murder of Enrique Camarena, an agent for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration who was working under cover in Guadalajara in 1985.

Mexico also released into American hands Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales, a former leader of the Zetas cartel, which helped perfect the practice of using carnage as a message.

The handovers were just one in a series of concessions by Mexico.

Since Mr. Trump first started floating the idea of tariffs in November, the Mexican government has intensified its military crackdown in Sinaloa state, a major hub of fentanyl production. The region is the home base of the Sinaloa cartel, which the U.S. government blames for much of the synthetic opioids flooding over the border.

A slew of arrests, drug lab raids and fentanyl seizures have struck at the core of cartel operations in Culiacán, the state capital of Sinaloa, prompting some producers to shut down manufacturing of the drug altogether, according to interviews with six cartel operatives.

Ms. Sheinbaum announced the deployment of 10,000 National Guard troops at the border in early February, as Mexico and the United States have ratcheted up enforcement measures that have contributed to a plunge in illegal crossings. Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary, announced last week that only 200 people had been apprehended at the southern border one Saturday in February, which she said was the lowest daily figure in more than 15 years.

The tariff announcement on Monday was met with shock in Mexico, but experts said it was unlikely that even after what was seen as unfair punishment, Ms. Sheinbaum would shut down collaboration on security issues. The risks, they said, were simply too high.

“While she’s a very nationalist and leftist woman, she’s also very pragmatic in terms of her relationship with the U.S.,” Mr. Guerrero said. “If that relationship goes badly, it would be a disaster for her government.”

But on Tuesday, a 25 percent tariff on nearly all imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China went into effect. Even now that the tariffs are in place, a number of experts still question how long they will last given their potential to significantly damage an otherwise solid economy.

Economists this week published a raft of new estimates that sought to capture how bad the damage could be.

One of the biggest concerns is how tariffs will impact price pressures that have yet to be fully extinguished in the aftermath of the worst inflation shock in decades following the pandemic. Consumer price growth remains higher than officials at the Federal Reserve, who are responsible for keeping inflation low and stable, want it to be. For them to lower interest rates, they want to be certain that inflation is coming back down to its 2 percent target.

Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, an investment advisory firm, warned that if these tariffs were maintained, it would increase the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge by roughly half a percentage point by the final quarter of the year. That gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices — stood at 2.6 percent as of January.

The impact could persist into next year, Mr. Guha warned, forecasting an additional 0.2 percentage point bump in core P.C.E. inflation in 2026.

Another concern is what these tariffs may mean for economic growth. The last time there was a global trade war stewarded by Mr. Trump, growth fears edged out those related to inflation. The reason was partly because price pressures at that time were, if anything, too low rather than too high. Moreover, companies responded to the uncertainty by pulling back, lowering business activity and raising the prospects of a much sharper slowdown. That prompted the Fed to lower interest rates in 2019 to safeguard the economy.

This time around, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, expects that if the tariffs are maintained and retaliation ensues, as has already started, the growth in gross domestic product will be a full percentage point lower than it would otherwise have been. That would suggest the U.S. economy would only grow 1 percent in 2025. Over the course of 2024, it grew 2.5 percent.

Ms. Bostjancic also estimates that what households end up spending on everyday items will increase on average by around $1,000 annually as a result of the tariffs.

“Part of the negative impact on economic activity stems from the drop in business, consumer and investor confidence, as the consensus view was that tariffs would be used as a threat and negotiating tool, instead of being implemented,” she said. “The deterioration in confidence could very well lead businesses to pare or at least delay investments and new hires, consumers to delay purchases, and for financial risk assets, such as equities, to decline or increase in volatility.”

This dynamic will further complicate the Fed’s already tough task of trying to figure out when or whether to restart interest rate cuts. John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said there was no need to change the central bank’s policy settings “right away,” suggesting officials will opt against taking any action at their upcoming meeting later this month.

Mr. Williams, who casts a vote at every meeting, warned that tariffs would likely lead to higher U.S. prices but that the magnitude of the impact was highly uncertain.

The impact of tariffs on inflation may start to show up “later this year,” he said at an event hosted by Bloomberg. Mr. Williams stressed that the Fed was also paying close attention to how tariffs will impact economic activity, including if businesses continue to invest or if consumers continue to spend. “That’s where I think another big uncertainty is.”

At least right now, he said the economy was in a “very good place.” Financial markets are now pricing in three rate cuts this year, one more than expected at the start of Trump’s second term in office.

Speaking at a House hearing on Tuesday, Mike Konczal, an economic official under the Biden administration, added that the extreme uncertainty surrounding Mr. Trump’s tariff plans would also be detrimental.

“That kind of policy uncertainty is very poor for investments, very poor for growth,” he said. With “prices increasing at a period where consumers and everyday people are much more sensitive to prices than they may have been in more recent decades, I do worry it will feed into inflation expectations.”

“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” said Mr. Trudeau said, adding, “We will never be the 51st state.”

“When it comes to defending our great nation, there is no price we all aren’t willing to pay,” he said.

After U.S. tariffs of 25 percent on almost all Canadian goods took effect at midnight on Tuesday, Mr. Trudeau imposed retaliatory tariffs that amount to about $20.5 billion and has promised another $85 billion in tariffs in three weeks if the United States did not back down.

Mr. Trudeau, whose country is home to the largest Ukrainian diaspora outside of Russia, also raised questions about Mr. Trump’s foreign policy priorities in pursuing a deal to end the war started by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Today, the United States launched a trade war against Canada,” he said. “At the same time, they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin — a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense.”

During Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Trudeau went out of his way to avoid publicly responding to taunts by Mr. Trump or publicly challenging the president’s exaggerations and false statements.

But since Mr. Trump announced in November his plan to impose tariffs on Canada, as well as Mexico and China, Mr. Trudeau has adopted an increasingly aggressive tone, escalating his accusations in early January after announcing that he was would quit his post. That decision came in the context of a drastic decline in his popularity and political infighting in his Liberal party that led to the resignation of Chrystia Freeland, his finance minister and deputy prime minister.

But the prime minister’s comments on Tuesday reflected the prevailing mood in Canada, where economic anxiety over the economic effects of American tariffs has sparked a surge of patriotism and widespread anger, and fueled boycotts of U.S. goods and travel.

Mr. Trudeau repeatedly suggested that Mr. Trump was ignoring the wishes of Americans and not acting in their interest, a notable departure from the restraint Canadian leaders have long exercised in commenting on domestic American affairs.

Directly addressing “the American people,” Mr. Trudeau said that the tariffs would increase their cost of living under undermine their security. “Your government has chosen to do this to you,” he said.

On Russia, Mr. Trudeau asked, “How do Americans feel about jettisoning one’s friends and allies in favor of a country that has never wished Americans well and continues to act in ways that harm the global economy and specifically the American economy and American values and principles?”

Mr. Trudeau suggested that he had been unable to speak with Mr. Trump since their last telephone call on Feb. 22.

The tariffs apply a 25 percent duty on goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10 percent on imports from China.

Importers typically employ customs brokers to calculate and pay tariffs to the government agency that collects them, U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Adam Lewis, a co-founder and the president of Clearit, a customs broker, said that it would not be hard to tweak software to collect the new tariffs, but that a crucial part of the tariffs payment system might need significant adjustments. Importers must buy a “customs bond,” a type of insurance that guarantees the duties will be paid. Mr. Lewis said some customers might have to increase the size of their bonds to cover the extra tariff payments.

“Many of their products were coming in duty-free, and all of a sudden there’s going to be a 25 percent increase,” he said. “It’s quite large.”

In addition, policing importers for tariff evasion will now become a much bigger task for Customs and Border Protection and the Department of Justice. Some importers may try to avoid tariffs by understating the cost of goods in customs declarations or by falsely claiming they were imported from countries not subject to tariffs.

“The greater the breadth and severity of these new tariffs, the greater the likelihood that at least some potential importers may want to misrepresent the value or the origin of their goods,” said Kirti Vaidya Reddy, a former federal prosecutor who is now a partner at the law firm Quarles.

If the government finds that an importer has not paid duties, customs officials are likely to demand that the importer pay what is owed and a penalty that can double or even triple the amount due.

In a statement, a customs agency spokeswoman said: “The dynamic nature of our mission, along with evolving threats and challenges, requires C.B.P. to remain flexible and adapt quickly while ensuring seamless operations and mission resilience. These tariffs will help maintain America’s global competitiveness and protect American industries from unfair trade practices.”

Some evasion cases have become the subject of criminal prosecutions. Last year, a Miami importer pleaded guilty to participating in an import scheme involving Chinese truck tires that the Justice Department said had cost the United States more than $1.9 million in forgone tariff revenue.

But stepping up enforcement efforts is likely to require that the Justice Department devote significantly more staff to pursuing tariff evasion cases, which, lawyers said, can take time to build.

“The Department of Justice has the personnel and infrastructure to do it, but these cases are complex, transnational and document-heavy,” said Artie McConnell, a former federal prosecutor who is a partner at the law firm BakerHostetler. “You can’t rush it, and prosecutions likely won’t come quickly.”

Canada is flush with that oil, known as heavy crude. And facilities like BP’s refinery in Whiting, Ind., were built around that supply.

Companies have little reason to spend billions of dollars reconfiguring their systems for trade policy that may be fleeting. Not to mention there is uncertainty about the trajectory of global demand for gasoline and diesel, which some experts think could peak in the next decade as more people buy electric cars as well as trucks that run on natural gas and other fuels.

Whiting, a facility of tanks, towers and more than 800 miles of pipelines, is among the U.S. refineries most dependent on Canadian oil. On any given day, between 65 percent and three-quarters of the crude flowing through it is of the dark, viscous variety found in the oil sands of Alberta.

BP can tweak its recipe — but only so much. Too little of the viscous stuff and the company would need to cut back its production of the fuels that power cars, trucks and airplanes. “You can’t turn the Titanic on a dime, and the industry is kind of the same way,” said Rick Weyen, a retired refining executive who worked at the Whiting refinery in the 1980s and ’90s.

In a concession to the oil industry, which was one of his biggest supporters in last year’s election, Mr. Trump said oil and other energy products imported from Canada would be subject to a 10 percent tariff, not 25 percent.

At that level, some consumers may see gasoline prices rise, but analysts said much of the added cost would be absorbed by Canadian oil producers and U.S. refiners that are effectively locked into doing business with each other.

But fentanyl-related overdose deaths have already been steeply declining over the past year, according to preliminary data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that the Trump administration promoted just last week.

Between September 2023 and September 2024, roughly 87,000 people died of drug overdoses, a decline of almost 24 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the most recent C.D.C. update. Around 55,000 of the deaths were attributed to synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, a decrease of around 30 percent.

Overdose data lags by several months, as states confirm deaths and report them to the C.D.C., which then publishes national figures. Mr. Trump has suggested without evidence in recent weeks that the numbers are a significant undercount.

“We lose 300,000 people a year to fentanyl,” Mr. Trump said at a cabinet meeting last week. “Not 100, not 95, not 60, like you read. You know, you’ve been reading it for years. We lost, in my opinion, over the last couple of years, on average, maybe close to 300,000 people dead, and the families are ruined.”

The decrease in fentanyl overdoses, drug policy experts have said, has more to do with public health measures than changes in border policies. During the Biden administration, naloxone, an overdose-reversing medication, was approved for over-the-counter sales and became more widely available. Federal grants allowed communities to stockpile the rescue drug.

Buprenorphine, a treatment for opioid addiction, has also been easier to find for some drug users, after some restrictions for prescribing it were lifted by Congress in 2022.

While fentanyl causes the majority of fatal overdoses, other street drugs play a major role, including stimulants like methamphetamine and cocaine, and xylazine, an animal tranquilizer that can sedate a drug user for hours and does not respond to overdose reversal medication.

“We don’t want to enter into a trade war,” she said. “That only affects the people.”

After ticking off a list of Mexico’s recent successes in cracking down on drug trafficking and more — as Mr. Trump asked Mexico’s government to do to avert tariffs — Ms. Sheinbaum rejected what she called the “fentanyl argument” invoked by Mr. Trump to justify the imposition of the tariffs.

“For humanitarian reasons," her statement said, “we cooperate to prevent the illegal trafficking of drugs into the United States. However, as we have stated on many occasions, the government of that country must also take responsibility for the opioid crisis that has caused so many deaths in the United States.”

Her statement addressed what she said were her government’s actions in the areas that Mr. Trump said he wanted to see changes in, specifically the seizure of drugs and arms and the extradition to the United States of close to three dozen cartel leaders, which she said had been “recently transferred to the United States for the benefit of both countries’ security.”

“We are emphatic,” Ms. Sheinbaum said. “There is no reason, justification, or excuse that supports this decision that will affect our people and nations. We have said it in various ways: cooperation and coordination, yes; subordination and interventionism, no. Mexico deserves respect.”

She ended by urging her country to show unity in the face of the crisis. “I call upon the people of Mexico, all of you, to face this challenge together, to stay united,” Ms. Sheinbaum said. “I reiterate: it is time to defend Mexico and its sovereignty. We must stay alert and calm. Cool heads.”

Gone is the alliance-first foreign policy of past administrations. The first weeks of the second Trump term have taken on the feel of America vs. the world.

“The free world needs a new leader,” Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, wrote on social media after Mr. Trump clashed with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in the Oval Office last week. “It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.”

Now Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs — 25 percent on most imports from Canada and Mexico and two rounds of 10 percent levies on imports from China — which he has said are punishment for their failure to stem the flow of drugs into the United States.

The moves have quickly sparked a trade war: China and Canada retaliated immediately, imposing their own tariffs on U.S. goods on Tuesday. Mexico said it would announce its countermeasures, including retaliatory tariffs, on Sunday.

The list of countries targeted by Mr. Trump has continued to grow. He has mocked Canada as the 51st state and called its prime minister, Justin Trudeau, a “governor.” (As a result, Mr. Trudeau’s low approval risings got a noticeable rise after Mr. Trump targeted the country.)

He has threatened to seize the Panama Canal and annex Greenland from Denmark. He has frozen military aid for Ukraine as the country attempts to fight off a Russian invasion. He has cut off foreign aid that benefits countries throughout Africa, South America and Asia. Now he has imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.

Some of his many threats may just be that — threats or negotiating tactics — but Mr. Trump has shown a willingness to follow through particularly when it comes to tariffs and withholding foreign aid.

“It means uncertainty, because right now, it isn’t always clear what is a tactic and what is actually meant,” said Nicholas J. Cull, professor of public diplomacy at the University of Southern California. “So it’s very confusing for people, and I suspect that a lot of foreign policy is being played for domestic audiences to get cheers from the base and to keep people uncertain.”

Slightly more Americans approve of Mr. Trump than disapprove after the first weeks in office of his second term, according to averages of polls. He will give a joint address to Congress this evening.